Maryam Keshavarzian; Hossain Raghfar; Nasser Khiyabani; Ahmad Reza Jalali Naeeni
Abstract
Discovering the structure and pattern of crude oil price fluctuations enables us to disclose valuable information about the price change, information transmission and reactions of these markets to the spillover in NYMEX. This study focuses on this task. Moreover, it tries to capture the fluctuation effects ...
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Discovering the structure and pattern of crude oil price fluctuations enables us to disclose valuable information about the price change, information transmission and reactions of these markets to the spillover in NYMEX. This study focuses on this task. Moreover, it tries to capture the fluctuation effects on the markets' instabilities and analyses the spot and future markets operations in both price discovery – through error correction model- or volatility and risk spillover – through multivariate GARCH-BRKK model.The results show that causality in mean is from future to spot market and not the vice versa. In other words future markets undertake price discovery and leadership. The result of volatility spillover, information and risk transmission between markets shows that information transmission is from future to spot market and the reverse does not hold
